Thursday, January 30, 2020

The Outlook for the US Printing Businesses in 2007 Essay Example for Free

The Outlook for the US Printing Businesses in 2007 Essay The printing industry encompasses a wide range of products for commercial and retail use. Printing is involved in the production of magazines, newspapers and books, as well as brochures, maps, postcards, business forms, stamps, manuals, packaging and so on and so forth. It also includes various related pre- as well as post-press occupations such as lay-outing, graphic designing, binding and finishing. There are different methods of printing using plates or an image carrier. Among the most common of these are: lithography invented in 1798, the modern process makes use of a photosensitive emulsion placed onto smooth surfaces, either using a platesetter for computer-to-plate (CTP) technology or on flexible aluminum or plastic printing plates; it’s most commonly used for credit cards, packaging, CDs, books and newspapers. flexography – most commonly used for packaging, it makes use of a 3-dimensional negative impression of the image to be printed produced on polymer or rubber and rotated on the surface to be printed. It was originally used for printing on corrugated boards. The flexibility of the material enables the print to be impressed on uneven surfaces. gravure – used mainly for food packaging, wallpaper, furniture laminates, paneling and magazines, gravure printing uses depressed, as opposed to raised, surfaces, where the image areas are etched into copper cylinders. It produces high quality print but the costs involved in the necessary equipment are prohibitive compared to other methods used in high volume runs. screen printing – can be used to print on almost any material, using a screen prepared with a stencil, a squeegee and ink. It is highly versatile and simple to use. The best known application for this method of printing is for T-shirt printing, letterpress printing – the method involves the use of movable type where the ink is smeared on raised surfaces and then placed on a suitable material such as paper or cloth for transferring impressions. The invention of reusable, individual letters for use in this type of printing in the 1400s is credited to Johann Gutenberg; offset printing – modern techniques make use of film negatives where the image is transferred onto photoelectric plates, similar to the printing of photographs. It is the most commonly used method for high-volume printing. Non-impact or plateless printing includes electrostatic, electronic, toner-based and inkjet printing. With the advent of computers, there has been a further diversification of the industry; namely, traditional or manual printing and quick or digital printing. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005) Together   with the computer, the ready availability of the Internet has inspired fears that the printed word was in danger of being phased out as the most widely spread form of communication and information.   The impact on the growth and profitability of the printing industry was of significant concern, as the rising financial and environmental costs of paper printing made the move into a paperless society seem inevitable. In the US, especially after the recession of 1990-91, the most pessimistic forecasts had been made regarding the future of the printing industry in an increasingly digital world. A 2004 study of the findings and forecast of the US Department of Labor on the employment and compensation of workers leads to the conclusion that fewer workers working fewer hours will be required overall in the printing industry against a projected increase in all other industries, due mainly to the increased use of automation and digital prepress technology. However, there is a concurrent requirement for workers with knowledge in digital prepress and post-printing technologies. There also seems to be a perceived increase in companies specializing in commercial flexographic and digital printing. More companies will be employing fewer than 10 non-supervisory workers at higher or equal hourly compensation as compared to other industries. There also seems to be a trend towards increased employment of workers with knowledge or education in operation of computer-related equipment. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005) There are varied opinions among businesspeople in the industry. Some maintain that the level of capital investment needed for quality, high-volume printing precludes all but a few to make a reasonable profit. (Paul, 1998) Others maintain that while a small profit margin may be discouraging, the printing industry is alive and booming, in part because of growing expenditure in advertising and promotions, as well as the proliferation of direct selling companies. (Dolbeck, 2005) Most agree that the advent of digital technology has helped lower costs and increase efficiency, thus improving profit margin. Some studies have shown that an increasing number of people are tuning into the Internet rather than newspapers or magazines. However, it is projected that it will be at least 10 years before those who get their news from the internet will outnumber those who read the newspaper. That is, if those who had earlier converted revert back to printed media. It is maintained that despite the many innovations in digital technology, it is not as portable as printed material, and the cost of attaining some portability is still beyond many consumers. Moreover, many companies maintain that the retention and pass-on potential of the printed brochure or pamphlet has a greater marketing impact than a website. For educational and scholarly products, the process of transferring the information from print to screen is a long and laborious process, and while audio books and CD-ROMs are enjoying growing popularity in many libraries, it is still a long way from replacing the books as a means of providing in-depth information and education. (Heger, 1994) According to C. Barnes and Co.’s report â€Å"2005 Market in Print,† a survey of printing companies revealed that the majority of companies surveyed with non-printing operations (NPO) were small companies. These NPOs included graphic design, fulfillment and mailing. The chief complaints from printing business owners include stiff competition, the cost of technology that have shorter depreciation, shortage of skilled workers and price increase of consumables. The transition from manual to partly digital technology has caught some companies flat-footed, jumping on the bandwagon too late or without enough knowledge and research to buy the right equipment at the right time. The segment of the industry that is particularly enjoying popularity is digital or quick printing.   Small print shops that specialize in desktop value-added services abound because of the ease of acquiring the necessary equipment and consumables and the relatively low capital requirements.   These services include calling cards, invitations, letterheads for small businesses, leaflets, flyers and marketing materials such as promotional mugs and magnets. Digital cameras and mobile phones with high resolution cameras have also resulted in a rising demand for digital photo printing. Also an interesting development in the industry is large format printing, in which digital images are transferred directly from a digital image to tarpaulin or paper, much like a large inkjet printer.   This is especially handy for low-volume printing requirements such as a banner a garage sale or posters for a school recital. Digital print shops have a unique relationship with its customers. All preprinting requirements may be provided by the client directly, usually already in a digital file.   The print shop ascertains that form and layout of the file is up to standards for proper printing and provides the medium for the actual process.   Or the client may come in bare-handed and state the requirements. The print shop then provides the services required: scan, lay-out, proof, color correct, edit then print. Many a party or small social event, small business and school have taken advantage of this while-you-wait service in fulfilling their collateral needs at comparatively low cost considering the volume involved. Paper companies make the process even easier by producing products especially designed for toner-based or inkjet printers ranging from pre-formatted labels in different configurations to scented board paper for calling cards, all available in retail at neighborhood bookstores at reasonable prices. The trend for digital printing is towards faster, cheaper and higher quality of printed product. However, high volume requirements cannot be fulfilled by even the best equipped digital print shop simply because the cost escalates per piece produced, unlike traditional printing methods, where fixed costs such as plates and film enable the producer to run prints at lower cost when volume goes up. These same fixed costs, however, cannot provide the service at competitive prices if the volume is low. The relationship of the plated and digital print businesses is largely symbiotic.   Plated printers are the main source of income of paper companies that also produce the specialty paper needed by digital printers, but only as sub-business. These paper companies deal in volume as well, and will not survive on the sales from digital shops alone. Digital printers at the neighborhood level provides potential clients an accessible point in which they can bring their initial printing requirements to be then referred to a plated printer after graphic design, scanning and/or lay outing for volume printing. There is very little actual overlap for the two sub-industries, providing services for different needs of the same customer. A new player in the field that promotes the marriage of digital and traditional printing processes is print-on-demand (POD) publishers. More of a publishing rather than printing method, it nonetheless uses digital imagery and letterpress printing to produce books and posters in small runs. (Wikipedia) Would-be authors are able to have their work published, albeit they pay for it themselves. The method is also often used for limited circulation publications, as a stopgap for materials with high demand that are in the process of being re-run and for books in print with only a trickle of demand which makes a full re-run impractical. What is the forecast for the printing industry in the US?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Overall, the prospects of the printing industry for 2007 are good. Perhaps it is not as rosy as some projections from 1999, when printers enjoyed a boom, but neither is it as black as it is being painted by some trend watchers. The average projections for the industry overall is 5. The need of those in the printing industry to reinvent itself in order to overcome aggressive competition, smaller markets, and increasing cost of materials, especially paper. The changes in the market are considered by 20% of a representative slice of print and prepress firms as a call to arms in the war of doing business in a changing world. (Youngblood Communications, 2005)   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In the second quarter of 2006, Xerox Corporation spearheaded a free seminar series entitled â€Å"Innovate ’06.† It is a worldwide series with concurrent offerings within the United States that focused primarily on educating those in the printing business, or who are thinking of getting into it, on their options regarding industry trends, technological advances and how to boost profit and efficiency in the workflow of an increasingly digital industry. (Presswire, 2006)   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   While there is some pessimism among some of those in the industry regarding the viability of the printing business of turning over a reasonable profit, the prognosis of manufacturers of the equipment and consumables is positive. In a survey of U.S. companies reports show and increase of expenditure from 2004 of 23% on new plants and equipment. The spending spree is attributed to appreciable profit-earning in 2004, enabling companies to make improvements and begin projects that have been put off during the leaner years. (Min, etal, 2005)   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   TrendWatch Graphic Arts, in its report entitled â€Å"Printing Forecast 2005: The TrendWatch Graphic Arts Perspectives on the Challenges and Opportunities for Printing in the Next 12 Months and Beyond†, also reported that a survey of American and some Canadian commercial printers are hopeful about their companies’ futures. There was an increased sale of printing presses in 2004 and a projected 6% increase of sales of 6-color sheetfed offset presses over the following months. (Youngblood Communications, 2005)   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Advertising expenditures has also increased, according to TNS Media Intelligence, a strategic advertising and marketing information provider. In the 1st Quarter of 2006, total advertising expenditure rose by 5.2 percent against the same period of the previous year. However, impact of this expenditure did not quite favor newspapers and business to business (B2B) magazines. Of those in the publishing industry, only consumer magazines posted an increase in income. (TNS Media Intelligence, 2006)   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Such reports tend to focus on the large companies spending the big bucks in advertising. Growth in the industry is not as high as projected, mostly because of a not altogether unexpected shift to online media, with a worldwide growth of 40% expected, according to Carat. (Khan, 2006) But earnings from advertising and marketing expenditures by top companies are not the only opportunities for those in the printing industry today. There has been a healthy growth in the quick print industry that to print for the ordinary citizen with a family picture Christmas card to send to the folks back home. (Youngblood Communications, 2005)   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The grudging admission by most existing, large printing companies is that business is good, if not great. This could be because they are reluctant to encourage other players to get into the business and cut into an ever decreasing wedge of the market. Environmental issues are also a big consideration in the woes of these big companies, requiring expenditures on cleaner, more efficient machines.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   For those about to plunge into the pool, start small seems to be the way to go. The neighborhood print shop, the POD publisher, the offshoot value-added service provider does not require much capital expenditure. There is always someone wanting to print something, the important thing is to research the intended site of enterprise and provide whatever is needed.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The shift to digital has been widely accepted as a good thing, even by those who had watched its advent into the market askance. The growing dependence on the microchip driven hardware is felt across all industries, and most especially in the printing and publishing industry, spawning a greater demand for the technology. And software and hardware companies are quick to take full advantage of this trend. Almost every six months, the newest, fastest, cheapest, most efficient, most environment friendly, most accurate, most user-friendly and other â€Å"new, improved† models and programs are being touted.   For those wishing to get into the business in a big way, big ticket items are the ones that need to be most researched. True, the Internet and online media are the new toys, and everybody wants to have a go at it. Gone are the days that for research, you go to the trusty 20-volume Merit Student’s Encyclopedia, and for the latest Hollywood gossip you go over to your neighbor’s house and borrow the supermarket tabloid. The Internet is easier to use when searching for a school project, music to download, movies to preview or things to buy However, very few people enjoy reading a suspense thriller or a romance novel from a glowing screen hunched over a computer, and it is highly unlikely that some type of digital media would become affordable enough to be left in mailboxes in lieu of flyers, leaflets, pamphlets and brochures. Sharing photos and sending virtual greeting cards are also a good thing, but there is no replacement for actual photographs you can frame or actual greeting cards you can frame. In essence, one media does not necessarily compete with the other. They each have their advantages and disadvantages, and given most circumstances, print and digital complement each other. Some publications have even found that a good Web-based counterpart was a good way to get circulation going as well as a source of income via advertisements. Furthermore, since Web content can be updated instantaneously, the publication can keep its readers up-to-date with the latest news and trends in between issues. For those in the printing industry, the computer has been much like the electric bulb. It is faster, easier to use and produce better results. The ones who could not keep up with the technology have turned in their shingles and closed up shop. The smart ones got with the program and grew even better. The well-researched, carefully-planned production structure with prerequisite training and upgrades in equipment and workflow has generated significant earnings for the enlightened business owner.   Rather than ranting at the changes and trying to outlast the new technology, many companies began spending on upgrades or outright replacements of obsolete equipment that was keeping the productivity of the company at pre-digital levels. This willingness of printing companies to invest in new technologies sends a crystal clear signal that the industry is healthy and responsive to changes.   The outlook for 2007 for US printing industry is looking well. References Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, 2005 Printing Career Guide to Industries, 2006-07 Edition retrieved December 15, 2006 from at http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/cgs050.htm Paul, P. 1998 Everything thats fit to print: printers struggle with changing technology and stiff competition New Mexicos printing industry Industry Overview New Mexico Business Journal retrieved Dec 15, 2006 from http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m5092/is_7_22/ai_54370066 Heger, K. Oct, 1994,  Print: a road kill on the information superhighway? impact of information superhighway on printing industry Communication World,    retrieved December 15, 2006 from http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m4422/is_n9_v11/ai_16358776 Dolbeck, A. 2005, Valuation of the Paper and Publishing IndustryWeekly Corporate Growth Report NVST retrieved December 15, 2006 from http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3755/is_200502/ai_n12412452 Min, et al, June 2005, U.S. industry unlocks budget box Pulp Paper retrieved December 15, 2006   http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3636/is_200506/ai_n14687790 Youngblood Communications Co., Ltd., Jan 2005 Printing Forecast 2005 Print Action retrieved December 15, 2006 from http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa4088/is_200501/ai_n9485742 Patrick, M. Nov 2000, The Web Effect on magazine publishing industry Folio: The Magazine for Magazine Management,   retrieved December 15, 2006 from http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m3065/is_14_29/ai_67718962 Wikipedia, Flexography retrieved December 15, 2006 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flexography Khan, M. December 12, 2006 Online drives Carat’s revised ad spend forecast DM News retrieved December 15th, 2006 from http://www.dmnews.com/cms/dm-news/research-studies/39350.html TNS Media Intelligence 2006 TNS Media Intelligence Reports U.S. Advertising Expenditures Advanced 5.2 Percent in First Quarter 2006 retrieved December 15, 2006 from http://www.tns-mi.com/news/05312006.htm M2 PressWIRE, 2006 Print Industry Experts to Help Companies Worldwide Profit and Grow retrieved December 15, 2006 from http://www.imaginginfo.com/article/article.jsp?id=1575siteSection=33

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Analyzing Macbeth According To The 7 Habits Of Highly Effective Teens :: Stephen Covey, Seven Habits

In reading William Shakespeare's play, MacBeth, readers can plainly see that character development is crucial to developing the plot, as well as the overall appeal of the literature. One can see the growth in Macbeth and Lady Macbeth throughout the story. The changes in the characters' personas is very much visible to the reader throughout the storyline. In analyzing MacBeth, one can use Sean Covey's insightful book, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Teens, to show the seven characteristics, as Covey describes them, show the changes in Macbeth and Lady Macbeth.To teach one's self a lesson in changes of character, one should read up on the character Macbeth. This man made a turn from a, more or less, flat character in the beginning of the story to a much rounder character with many complex parts of a personality by the time the story was over. But the common denominator within his character in all parts of the story was that, despite his stature as a "good guy" or a "bad guy", Macbeth exhibited absolutely no good qualities as shown in Seven Habits. When the witches foretold of his destiny, Macbeth did not Begin with the End in Mind. Hewas not proactive in helping his destiny come to pass, having his wife actually scheme to assassinate King Duncan. He did not follow the habit: "Seek First to Understand, Then to be Understood". He never tried to understand anything. He just followed what his wife told him to do. When he thought that there was a threat to his position he would do anything, included cold-blooded murder, to alleviate the strain in his deranged mind. Even those close to him such as Banquo and others were killed just because of MacBeth's reactive nature. This is definitely a sign of a man with a win-lose paradigm. It was his way or the highway. MacBeth also had bad habits, such as being a procrastinator, waiting for Lady MacBeth to come up with a plan before he thought about the consequences. On the other hand, Lady MacBeth exhibited some positive habits during the story. When she found out of MacBeth's destiny to become Thane of Glamis, Thane of Codor, and ultimately, king, she took initiative in planning out the king's untimely murder. She cunningly planned and plotted, all for the straight-forward reason of her husband being able to assume the throne as king.

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Global Financial Crisis and Nigerian Stock Market Volatility

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY Abdul ADAMU Department of Business Administration, Nasarawa State University, Keffi – Nasarawa State. [email  protected] com [email  protected] com Tel. +2348029445391, +2348064851648. Paper presented at the National Conference on â€Å"Managing the challenges of Global Financial Crisis in Developing Economies† organised by the Faculty of Administration, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Nasarawa State – Nigeria held between March 9 – 11, 2010. Abstract The current global financial crisis is no longer news but a reality. Our policy makers in the country have been proven wrong based on their argument that the country was insulated. Some of the sectors that have felt the heat of the crisis are the banking sector and the stock market. In the stock market, investors lost trillions of naira due the downward fall in the prices of stock. Based on this, the study assesses the extent of the stock market volatility in the period preceding the crisis and the period of the crisis. Using the All Share Index, the returns for various months were computed, descriptive statistics of the returns was calculated and the volatility of the market was estimated using the standard deviation. It was found that the stock market is highly volatile in the period of the financial crisis than the period preceding it. The recommendation is that the depth of instruments in the stock market should be varied in terms of fixed securities than equity instruments. Introduction The global economic crisis, which first emerged as a financial crisis in one country, has now fully installed itself with no bottom yet in sight. The world economy is in a deep recession, and the danger of falling into a deflationary trap cannot be dismissed for many important countries (UNCTAD, 2009). The recent global economic crisis was a result of economic and political events in the United States. What started with amended federal policy and poor mortgage lending practices, resulted in a world-wide economic meltdown that spread like a virus (Beck, 2008). The US sub-prime mortgage market triggered the crisis as a result of credit crunch within this market. Most countries around the world have approached this ‘tsunami’ pragmatically with emergency funding support for relevant sectors, so as to mitigate the impact of the crisis on economies as well as avoiding the entire collapse of the international financial system (Ajakaiye & Fakiyesi, 2009). Despite these supports by various governments in the form bailout, it does not stop some countries to go into recession, because of large decline in their wealth, manifesting itself in falling productive capacity, growth, employment and welfare. At first, the direct impact of the financial crisis on the African economies was limited as African countries has weak integration with the global economy and most commercial banks in the region refrained from investing in the troubled assets from the US and other part of the world (Adamu, 2008). This is why most commentators argue that Africa is so far insulated from the direct effects of the financial crisis at least in the short-run. But now, this is not the case as the rate of unemployment and liquidity squeeze is becoming unbearable. In Nigeria, like other African developing countries, the initial response to the crisis was rather meek, as if our policy makers do not understand the gravity of the crisis. While the developed countries were busy trying to bailout their economy in order to mitigate the effects of the crisis, our leaders were hiding under the shadow of insulation. The most visible sector being hit by this crisis in the Nigerian economy is the capital market. The Nigerian Stock Exchange, the flagship of Nigeria’s capital market has witnessed unprecedented turbulence since April, 2008. First, the downward slide of the stocks on the market dominated by the banking sector made experts restive and regulatory authorities jittery. While accusing fingers were being pointed at different directions as the cause of this volatility in the prices of stocks, the market began a free-fall never witnessed in the history of capital market operations in Nigeria. Both local and foreign investors who had taken advantage of the optimal return on investments on the stock exchange began to scamper elsewhere in desperation. Some of the questions that are critical to this trend in the capital market are; what is the extent of the stock price volatility on the Nigerian Stock Exchange? What are the factors that impacted the stock price volatility? To what extent has this volatility in stock price affected investors? What can the regulatory authority do to contain this problem? This paper will address the first question raised above. This part is the introduction and the rest of the paper is arranged as follows; section two discussed the concept of financial crisis, the Nigerian capital market and the crisis, then stock market volatility. In section three, we discuss data and methodology, then results and discussions in section four and finally, summary and conclusions in section five. The concept of financial crisis The term financial crisis is applied broadly to a variety of situations in which some financial institutions or assets suddenly lose a large part of their value. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking panics, and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other situations that are often called financial crises include stock market crashes and the bursting of other financial bubbles, currency crises, and sovereign defaults (Kindleberger & Aliber, 2005, Laeven & Valencia, 2008). Some economic theories that explained financial crises includes the World systems theory which explained the dangers and perils, which leading industrial nations will be facing (and are now facing) at the end of the long economic cycle, which began after the oil crisis of 1973. While Coordination games, a mathematical approach to modelling financial crises have emphasized that there is often positive feedback between market participants' decisions (Krugman, 2008). Positive feedback implies that there may be dramatic changes in asset values in response to small changes in economic fundamentals, Minsky’s theorised that financial fragility is a typical feature of any capitalist economy and financial fragility levels move together with the business cycle, but the Herding and Learning models explained that asset purchases by a few agents encourage others to buy too, not because the true value of the asset increases when many buy (which is called â€Å"strategic omplementarity†), but because investors come to believe the true asset value is high when they observe others buying (Avery & Zemsky, 1998, Chari and Kehoe, 2004, Cipriani & Guarino, 2008). The Nigerian Capital Market and the Crisis The All Share Index and the market capitalisation of the 233 listed equities capture activities and performance on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Before the crisis, there has been a consistent growth in these performance indicators over the year (see fig. 1). For instance, the All Share Index according to data from www. cashcraft. com grow from a value of 12,137 in 2002 to 66,371. 2 points on March 5, 2008, with a market capitalisation of about N12. 640 trillion, after which values fell to 20,827. 17 points on December 31, 2009, with a market capitalisation of 4. 989 trillion because of the meltdown. This shows that by the end of the year 2009, the All Share Index had lost a total share of about 69%, while market capitalisation had lost 61% of its value. There are concerns regarding how rapidly the global financial crisis affected the Nigerian Capital Market, especially given that there is virtually no cross-ownership of banks (investment or otherwise) between Nigeria and foreign countries, and there is hardly any domestic mortgage market for there to be a sub-prime problem as found particularly in the UK and the USA (Aluko, 2008; Ajakaiye & Fakiyesi, 2009). The decline of indicators of activities on the NSE before the escalation of the crisis on the global scene in July 2008 became a source of concern for many. It is difficult to attribute this decline to any particular factor, but those factors that may have direct or indirect impact are as follows; i. Foreign portfolio investments withdrawals and reduced foreign direct investment affect investor confidence in Nigeria (Adamu, 2008; Aluko, 2008; and Ajakaiye & Fakiyesi, 2009). This is the case because most foreigners withhold their investments in order to service their financial problems at home. This exposed the country to FDI uncertainties and vagaries, particularly in an era where public-private partnership (PPP) of huge investment plans such as oil and gas – LNG projects, power plants, railways, housing and roads are being encouraged. ii. Another factor which according to Ajakaiye & Fakiyesi (2009) that had serious impact on the stock market is what they called the ‘intensifiers’. These include policy interpretations by the market, which may have been induced by the slow government initial stand on the economy. This also includes interpretation of announcements, proclamations and rumours by the market. Examples include the proposed recapitalisation plan of the stock market players (stock broking firms), as well as rumours on the termination of margin lending by banks. iii. The phenomenon of marginal lending in Nigeria, whereby investors borrow money from banks to invest in other financial instruments like IPOs of banks with the hope of making quick returns. This may also be termed Nigeria's own version of the ‘sub-prime problem’, as it resulted in an exploding domestic stock market and stock prices and astounding returns to both the speculators and providers of the margin funds. This make the banks to feel the heat of the crisis as most margin loans become difficult to repay due to the downward trend in the market. iv. With the currency overdependence on oil revenue, the downward trend in the price of crude oil and prospects for economic recession in the developed world and Europe which are the markets for the oil, also contributed for the fall in the stock market. Because it look as if Nigeria's capital market bear cycle actually began with the decline of oil prices in July, and accelerated with its further decline in September and October (Aluko, 2008; Ajakaiye & Fakaiye, 2009). Stock Market Volatility Stock volatility refers to the potential for a given stock to experience a drastic decrease or increase in value within a predetermined period of time. Investors evaluate the volatility of stock before making a decision to purchase a new stock offering, buy additional shares of a stock already in the portfolio, or sell stock currently in the possession of the investor. In recent months, it has not been unusual to see the value of major stock indexes, such as the S 500, NIKKEI, DOW JONES, KOSPI, FTSE, and our own NSE-ASI change by as much as 3% in a single day. Unfortunately for many investors, the general direction of those changes has been downward. To many, this volatility is driven by the recent global financial crisis. Stock market volatility tends to be persistent; that is, periods of high volatility as well as low volatility tend to last for months. In particular, periods of high volatility tend to occur when stock prices are falling and during recessions. Stock market volatility also is positively related to volatility in economic variables, such as inflation, industrial production, and debt levels in the corporate sector (Schwert, 1989). The persistence in volatility is not surprising: stock market volatility should depend on the overall health of the economy, and real economic variables themselves tend to display persistence. The persistence of stock market return volatility has two interesting implications. First, volatility is a proxy for investment risk. Persistence in volatility implies that the risk and return trade-off changes in a predictable way over the business cycle. Second, the persistence in volatility can be used to predict future economic variables. For example, Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, and Xu (2001) show that stock market volatility helps to predict GDP growth. Volatility may impair the smooth functioning of the financial system and adversely affect economic performance (Mala & Reddy, 2007). Similarly, stock market volatility also has a number of negative implications. One of the ways in which it affects the economy is through its effect on consumer spending (Campbell, 1996; Starr-McCluer, 1998; Ludvigson & Steindel, 1999; and Poterba, 2000). The impact of stock market volatility on consumer spending is related via the wealth effect. Increased wealth will drive up consumer spending. However, a fall in stock market will weaken consumer confidence and thus drive down consumer spending. Stock market volatility may also affect business investment (Zuliu, 1995) and economic growth directly (Levine & Zervos, 1996; and Arestis, Demetriades, & Luintel, 2001). A rise in stock market volatility can be interpreted as a rise in risk of equity investment and thus a shift of funds to less risky assets. This move could lead to a rise in cost of funds to firms and thus new firms might bear this effect as investors will turn to purchase of stock in larger, well known firms. While there is a general consensus on what constitutes stock market volatility and, to a lesser extent, on how to measure it, there is far less agreement on the causes of changes in stock market volatility. Some economists see the causes of volatility in the arrival of new, unanticipated information that alters expected returns on a stock (Engle, 1982). Thus, changes in market volatility would merely reflect changes in the local or global economic environment. Others claim that volatility is caused mainly by changes in trading volume, practices or patterns, which in turn are driven by factors such as modifications in macroeconomic policies, shifts in investor tolerance of risk and increased uncertainty. The degree of stock market volatility can help forecasters predict the path of an economy’s growth and the structure of volatility can imply that â€Å"investors now need to hold more stocks in their portfolio to achieve diversification†(Krainer, 2002). Data and Methodology This research relies on the daily All Share Index (ASI) of the Nigerian Stock Exchange as reported by the exchange and on Cashcraft database. There are 233 listed companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange and the ASI is the major index that captures the performance of all the shares of the listed companies. Using the ASI, the monthly returns (%) were calculated using the formula below; Where Vf is the ASI at the end of the month, and Vi is the ASI at the beginning of the month. These returns were calculated for all the 48 months used in this study. We measure volatility using the standard deviation and/or variance. This is done by dividing the period under study into two. The first period comprises of 24 months observation for 2006 and 2007, the period prior to the crisis and the second 24 observations were for 2008 and 2009, the period of the crisis. In examining volatility changes over time, we compare the variances or standard deviations of the different periods and determine if they are statistically significantly different from each other. To estimate volatility, the expected returns or mean for these periods returns were computed using the equation; This implies that is the average of the return values. Using this value for and the variance estimate results in a formula for the volatility is given as; . It follows that the estimation of the volatility constant given by Wilmott, Howison and Dewynne (1995) is: Lastly, the expected returns and the standard deviations will be used in testing the hypothesis whether there is a significant difference between the means of the two observation using t – statistic for testing difference of two means. Results and Discussions Table 1 shows the descriptive statistics of the monthly returns for the two periods. For the period 2006 – 2007, the average return was 3. 42% with a standard deviation of 5. 37%. This is showing that during this period, stock market returns was less volatile because a less volatile stock will have a price/return that will deviate relatively from the mean little over time. This is the period when investors have consistent positive returns on their investment and there are willing to invest because stock returns are less volatile and their exposure to risk is less. Table 1. Descriptive Statistics RETURNS %2006-072008-09 Mean3. 4233 -4. 3658 Standard Error1. 09552. 5003 Median3. 550-4. 8400 ModeN/AN/A Standard Deviation5. 367012. 2489 Sample Variance28. 8050150. 0365 Kurtosis0. 67236. 3865 Skewness0. 39191. 4372 Range24. 6669. 15 Minimum-7. 44-30. 95 Maximum17. 2238. 2 Sum82. 16-104. 78 Count2424 Source; excel output On the other hand, during the period 2008 – 2009, there was a negative average return of –4. 37% with a standard deviation of 12. 25% showing high volatility in returns. This is as a result of the accelerated downward fall of the stock prices on the Nigerian Stock Exchange as a result of loss of investors’ confidence due to the global financial crisis. This period is characterised by negative returns which results to high volatility, and as we can see, the more volatile that a stock is, the harder it is to isolate where it could be on a future date. Since volatility is associated with risk, the more volatile that a stock is, the more risky it is. Consequently, the more risky a stock is, the harder it is to say with any certainty what the future price of the stock will be. When people invest, they would like to have no risk. The least amount of risk that is involved, the better the investment is. Since almost every investment has some risk, investors have looked for ways to minimize risk, so their best reaction was to avoid the stock market and this affected the market. The other descriptive statistics showed that both distributions are positive or right – skewed, meaning that most of the returns are in the lower portion of the distribution and there are some returns that has extremely large values and this pull the mean return upward to be greater than the median, specifically for the second period. Both has a positive kurtosis value of 0. 6723 and 6. 865 indicates a distribution with a sharper peak than a bell – shaped curves. The result of the test for the hypothesis to determine whether there is a significant difference between the means of the two observations is presented in table 2 below. The hypothesis is; Ho:  µ1 =  µ2 i. e. there is no difference in the means of the two observations H1:  µ1 ?  µ2 i. e. there is difference in the means of the tw o observations. From the result of the t- test, the null hypothesis is rejected at 5% level of significance. This is because t = 2. 85 ; t = 2. 01. the p – value computed is 0. 064 and it indicates that if the means are equal, the probability of observing a difference this large in the sample means is only 0. 0064. Based on this, there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the mean returns are different for the two periods, and that returns are lower in the period of the crisis than the period before it. This confirms the reason why there is higher volatility in this period than the other period. Table 2. t – Test for differences in Two means (assumes equal population variances) Data Hypothesized Difference0 Level of Significance0. 05 Population 1 Sample Sample Size24 Sample Mean3. 233 Sample Standard Deviation5. 367 Population 2 Sample Sample Size24 Sample Mean-4. 3658 Sample Standard Deviation12. 2489 Intermediate Calculations Population 1 Sample Degrees of Freedom 23 Population 2 Sample Degrees of Freedom23 Total Degrees of Freedom46 Pooled Variance89. 42012 Difference in Sample Means7. 7891 t Test Statistic2. 853384 Two-Tail Test Lower Critical Value-2. 012896 Upper Critical Value2. 012896 p-Value0. 006463 Reject the null hypothesis Source; Excel output Conclusion and recommendations The paper studied the extent of the stock market volatility in the period of 2006 – 2009. The period is divided into 24 months each to study the volatility of market returns between 2006 – 2007, and between 2008 – 2009. On the basis of the results it was found that the period 2006 – 2007 is less volatile than the period of 2008 – 2009; and this is due to the global financial that have affected investors’ confidence. Since volatility is associated with risk, the more volatile that a stock is, the more risky it is. Consequently, the more risky a stock is, the harder it is to say with any certainty what the future price of the stock will be. When people invest, they would like to have no risk. The least amount of risk that is involved, the better the investment is. Since almost every investment has some risk, investors have looked for ways to minimize risk, so their best reaction was to avoid the stock market and this affected the market. The recommendation is that the stock market instruments need to be diversified away form equity instruments to more of fixed security instruments. References Adamu, A. (2008). The Effects of global financial crisis on Nigerian Economy. International Journal of Investment and Finance Vol. 1. #1&2. Ajakaiye, O. & Fakiyesi, T. (2009). Global financial crisis Discussion paper 8: Nigeria. Oversea Development Institute, London. Aluko, M. (2008). The global financial meltdown: Impact on Nigeria's capital market and foreign reserves. retrieved from www. google. com on 14 January, 2010. Arestis, P. , Demetriades, P. O. & Luintel, K. B. (2001). Financial development and economic growth: The role of stock markets. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33(2):16-41. Avery, C. , & Zemsky, P. (1998). Multidimensional uncertainty and herd behavior in financial markets. American Economic Review 88, pp. 724-748. Campbell, J. (1996). Consumption and the stock market: Interpreting international experience. NBER Working Paper, 5610. Campbell, J. , Lettau, M. , Malkiel, B. , & Xu, Y. (2001). Have individual stocks become more volatile? An empirical exploration of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Finance 56, pp. 1–43. Chari, V. , & Kehoe, P. (2004). Financial crises as herds: overturning the critiques. Journal of Economic Theory 119, pp. 128-150. Cipriani, M. , & Guarino, A. (2008). Herd behavior and contagion in financial markets. The B. E. Journal of Theoretical Economics 8(1) (Contributions), Article 24, pp. 1-54. Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscadasticity with estimates of the variance of the U. K. inflation. Econometrica, 50(3):987-1008. Kinder, C. (2002). Estimating Stock Volatility. retrievd from www. google. com on 19 January, 2010. Kindleberger, C. P. , & Aliber, R. (2005). Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (5th ed). Wiley, ISBN 0471467146. Krainer, J. (2002). Stock market volatility. FRBSF Economic Letter, Western Banking, 2002-32, pp1-4. Krugman, P. (2008, October, 27). The widening gyre. New York Times. Laeven, L. , & Valencia, F. (2008). Systemic banking crises: A new database. International Monetary Fund Working Paper 08/224. Levine, R & S. Zervos (1996). Stock market development and long-run growth. World Bank Economic Review, 10(1):323-339. Ludvigson, S & C. Steindel (1999). How important is the stock market effect on consumption. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 5(1):29-51. Mala, R, & Reddy, M. (2007). Measuring stock market volatility in an emerging economy. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics Issue 8 126-133. Poterba, J. M. (2000). Stock market wealth and consumption†, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(2):99-118. Schwert, W. (1989). Why does stock market volatility change over time? Journal of Finance 44, pp. 1,115–1,153. Starr-McCluer, M. (1998). Stock market wealth and consumer spending. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Finance and Economics Discussion Paper Series, 8/20. UNCTAD (2009). Global economic meltdown. Geneva: United Nation Conference on Trade and development Wilmott, P. , Howison, S. , & Dewynne, J. (1995). The Mathematics of Financial Derivatives. New York: Cambridge University Press. Zuliu, H (1995). Stock market volatility and corporate investment†, IMF Working Paper, 95/102. www. cashcraft. com Appendices 1. Monthly returns computed using the NSE-ASI MONTHS/ YEARSRETURNS %MONTHS/ YEARSRETURNS % Jan-06-1. 69Jan-08-0. 02 Feb-060. 30Feb-08-11. 1 Mar-06-2. 00Mar-08-4. 01 Apr-06-0. 75Apr-08-5. 67 May-065. 45May-08-0. 33 Jun-065. 66Jun-080. 00 Jul-066. 75Jul-08-6. 90 Aug-0617. 22Aug-08-9. 22 Sep-060. 67Sep-08-6. 07 Oct-060. 35Oct-08-20. 96 Nov-06-3. 84Nov-08-9. 08 Dec-064. 92Dec-08-2. 37 Jan-078. 93Jan-09-30. 95 Feb-0710. 62Feb-097. 17 Mar-074. 87Mar-09-12. 60 Apr-078. 44Apr-098. 15 May-075. 9 5May-0938. 20 Jun-072. 44Jun-09-12. 63 Jul-070. 94Jul-09-7. 09 Aug-07-7. 44Aug-09-10. 42 Sep-07-0. 12Sep-09-2. 2 Oct-07-0. 16Oct-09-3. 08 Nov-077. 82Nov-09-3. 64 Dec-076. 83Dec-090. 05 Figure 1. Stock market performance, 2002-2009 Source: Extracted from Ajakaiye and Fakiyesi (2009)

Monday, January 6, 2020

The Buck Institute For Education - 969 Words

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